Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics by Franc Klaassen PDF

By Franc Klaassen

ISBN-10: 0199355959

ISBN-13: 9780199355952

The sport of tennis increases many questions which are of curiosity to a statistician. Is it precise that starting to serve in a collection provides a bonus? Are new balls a bonus? Is the 7th online game in a collection fairly very important? Are most sensible gamers extra solid than different avid gamers? Do genuine champions win the large issues? those and plenty of different questions are formulated as "hypotheses" and confirmed statistically.

Analyzing Wimbledon additionally discusses how the result of a fit will be anticipated (even whereas the fit is in progress), which issues are very important and which aren't, find out how to opt for an optimum carrier technique, and even if "winning temper" really exists in tennis. aimed toward readers with a few wisdom of arithmetic and statistics, the booklet makes use of tennis (Wimbledon particularly) as a car to demonstrate the facility and wonder of statistical reasoning.

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Additional info for Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics

Example text

It is gi = p4i (−8p3i + 28p2i − 34pi + 15) . p2i + (1 − pi )2 The derivation of the formula is not completely trivial because of the deuce rule and the uncertainty about how many points there will be in the game. 5, and that pi = 1 implies gi = 1. In other words, if the server never wins a point on service, he or she never wins a service game; if the server and receiver have equal probabilities of winning a point, they have equal probabilities of winning the game; and if the server wins all service points, he or she wins all service games.

The profile is not sensitive to the specification of pi + pj . Kim Clijsters defeats Venus Williams, US Open 2010 Venus Williams (seven grand slam singles titles) won both Wimbledon and the US Open in 2000 and 2001, and she won Wimbledon again in 2005, 2007, and 2008. Kim Clijsters won the US Open in 2005. The next three years she did not participate, but in 2009 she received a wildcard and, only one month after her return to the professional tour, she won again, defeating Caroline Wozniacki in the final.

Several alternatives for estimating the initial probability exist, based on past performances of the players. Blackman and Casey (1980) use match scores, while Clarke and Dyte (2000) use worldranking points. Klaassen and Magnus (2003a,b,c; 2008) employ the positions on the world ranking, although the user of the profile (say, the commentator) can adjust the estimate to account for his or her own specific knowledge, such as special abilities of the players on the court surface or health problems. McHale and Morton (2011) utilize games won and lost in past matches and the time passed since these matches were played to capture recent form.

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Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics by Franc Klaassen


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